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Coach's Corner: Football -- The Search -- To Be Continued
Posted at 8:00am — 12/23/2014
From day one, Michigan fans have been seething to be informed about the search for the new Head Coach of Michigan football. That interest has spread, partly because of talking heads throwing toothpicks at a dart board, and partly because the Michigan search has not ended instantly as with the other “searches,” such as Florida and Nebraska.
Two questions have been asked of this author endlessly the last three weeks by both Michigan and Ohio State followers: (1) can Michigan secure the hire of Jim Harbaugh, and (2) what is the Plan B hire strategy?
The reality is that the final decision rests with one person: Coach Harbaugh, forget insider “knowledge.” Still, a basic formula for such a situation is to (1) look at what is known for sure, that is, the facts; then (2) use informed knowledge to make inferences, some of which may actually be logical. Inductive logic is not foolproof, neither is the premise-driven Aristotle deductive logic.
Facts:
-Michigan clearly made an effort to produce a search based on a process. One inference from such a procedure is that multiple candidates are identified. That does not preclude one candidate being in the very center of the bulls-eye.
-Not another coach has acknowledged hearing from Michigan, officially or unofficially. That is not the normal buzz. Again, there may be multiple candidates, but only one has been clearly identified. No agent or coach has put out a phony I am a candidate message, only weak media speculation has been put forth. While none of the media message ever stuck on the wall, it has recently vanished with the exception of one name.
-Michigan, as a result of the week long leak, has not denied contacting Harbaugh; Harbaugh has played cozy but has not denied being contacted, nor given the dreaded I am not interested message in return.
Conclusion:
There may be more than one candidate, but one candidate is taking up 100% of Michigan’s effort. The intended target is well aware of the dynamics.
More Facts:
Harbaugh has leverage power and a large ego; neither condition is a negative. He is almost certainly, for many reasons, not going to tip his hand until a day or so after next week’s NFL finale. Essentially, by circumstance, he cannot.
-A semi-fact, or strong inference, is that two candidates remain in Harbaugh’s field of interest: Michigan and Oakland. Black Monday in the NFL could yield a surprise, but Miami and Chicago do not appear to be in any hurry, and Miami has announced a coaching return. On the other hand, tampering rules still apply as long as Harbaugh is coach.
Inference:
In Jim Harbaugh’s world getting to the dance first is an advantage, rules or not. Michigan was clearly first and remains the most persistent.
More Facts:
-There are clear extraneous variables that are in play: location of home, family wishes, and the state of the putrid Oakland Raiders who possess a history of chaos and failure hard to duplicate. And what can be said about the famous Raider fan base?
-Jim Harbaugh is a volatile and emotional personality; do not construe this as a negative statement; he is who he is. Emotion will not be the primary factor, but it will be contributory. Such types may change a decision several times in a span of one week. He knows, however, there is a time, as in football planning, that the game plan must be sealed and delivered.
-With such leverage, any agent will seek money, more money. Harbaugh’s agent already has a big coup in the bank, a fact. The question will be whether or not the coach/agent talks center on finance or what Harbaugh’s preference, sans the financial factor, truly is. The combination of family, agent, and coach preference, one could infer, will drive the final decision.
Inference:
Harbaugh’s association with Michigan does not appear to be the motivating variable, but this cannot be discounted. His season, ruined with reported administrative dissension, injuries, bad luck, and some chaos will affect Harbaugh. The only real question, again, sans finances, is NFL or Michigan?
Fact- the better sources have turned around during the last two days from Michigan being a long shot, to being a player, and perhaps the primary player.
Fact- that would make many M types ecstatic. The opposite would take place if Harbaugh drops the bouquet at the last moment and spoils the nuptials.
Now about Plan B- maybe there is no need to respond. If so, tune in next week.
Written by GBMWolverine Message Board Staff — CoachBT, Doc4Blu, and ErocWolverine
Go Blue — Wear Maize!
From day one, Michigan fans have been seething to be informed about the search for the new Head Coach of Michigan football. That interest has spread, partly because of talking heads throwing toothpicks at a dart board, and partly because the Michigan search has not ended instantly as with the other “searches,” such as Florida and Nebraska.
Two questions have been asked of this author endlessly the last three weeks by both Michigan and Ohio State followers: (1) can Michigan secure the hire of Jim Harbaugh, and (2) what is the Plan B hire strategy?
The reality is that the final decision rests with one person: Coach Harbaugh, forget insider “knowledge.” Still, a basic formula for such a situation is to (1) look at what is known for sure, that is, the facts; then (2) use informed knowledge to make inferences, some of which may actually be logical. Inductive logic is not foolproof, neither is the premise-driven Aristotle deductive logic.
Facts:
-Michigan clearly made an effort to produce a search based on a process. One inference from such a procedure is that multiple candidates are identified. That does not preclude one candidate being in the very center of the bulls-eye.
-Not another coach has acknowledged hearing from Michigan, officially or unofficially. That is not the normal buzz. Again, there may be multiple candidates, but only one has been clearly identified. No agent or coach has put out a phony I am a candidate message, only weak media speculation has been put forth. While none of the media message ever stuck on the wall, it has recently vanished with the exception of one name.
-Michigan, as a result of the week long leak, has not denied contacting Harbaugh; Harbaugh has played cozy but has not denied being contacted, nor given the dreaded I am not interested message in return.
Conclusion:
There may be more than one candidate, but one candidate is taking up 100% of Michigan’s effort. The intended target is well aware of the dynamics.
More Facts:
Harbaugh has leverage power and a large ego; neither condition is a negative. He is almost certainly, for many reasons, not going to tip his hand until a day or so after next week’s NFL finale. Essentially, by circumstance, he cannot.
-A semi-fact, or strong inference, is that two candidates remain in Harbaugh’s field of interest: Michigan and Oakland. Black Monday in the NFL could yield a surprise, but Miami and Chicago do not appear to be in any hurry, and Miami has announced a coaching return. On the other hand, tampering rules still apply as long as Harbaugh is coach.
Inference:
In Jim Harbaugh’s world getting to the dance first is an advantage, rules or not. Michigan was clearly first and remains the most persistent.
More Facts:
-There are clear extraneous variables that are in play: location of home, family wishes, and the state of the putrid Oakland Raiders who possess a history of chaos and failure hard to duplicate. And what can be said about the famous Raider fan base?
-Jim Harbaugh is a volatile and emotional personality; do not construe this as a negative statement; he is who he is. Emotion will not be the primary factor, but it will be contributory. Such types may change a decision several times in a span of one week. He knows, however, there is a time, as in football planning, that the game plan must be sealed and delivered.
-With such leverage, any agent will seek money, more money. Harbaugh’s agent already has a big coup in the bank, a fact. The question will be whether or not the coach/agent talks center on finance or what Harbaugh’s preference, sans the financial factor, truly is. The combination of family, agent, and coach preference, one could infer, will drive the final decision.
Inference:
Harbaugh’s association with Michigan does not appear to be the motivating variable, but this cannot be discounted. His season, ruined with reported administrative dissension, injuries, bad luck, and some chaos will affect Harbaugh. The only real question, again, sans finances, is NFL or Michigan?
Fact- the better sources have turned around during the last two days from Michigan being a long shot, to being a player, and perhaps the primary player.
Fact- that would make many M types ecstatic. The opposite would take place if Harbaugh drops the bouquet at the last moment and spoils the nuptials.
Now about Plan B- maybe there is no need to respond. If so, tune in next week.
Written by GBMWolverine Message Board Staff — CoachBT, Doc4Blu, and ErocWolverine
Go Blue — Wear Maize!
