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Coach's Corner: The Sword of Expectations
Posted at 6:00am -- August 16, 2015
Michigan, Football, and the Future -- Expectations, Delusion, Grandeur, and Reality
It had to happen, it happens everywhere when a coaching change occurs. What does the “it” in the previous sentence refer to as the topic? The “it” refers to the bloated question of how many games Michigan will win next season. Talking heads will over-analyze the stated quest and offer numerous predictions sometimes with convenient revision (and that is fine, a guess is a guess) and offer only raw generalizations to back up a conclusion that probably already has two or three attached caveats, or what ifs. You, the readers, may have better predictive accuracy than the anointed ones.
The what ifs are necessary in the art of predicting since higher-level football success is linked to multiple variables, all are important and all are interrelated. The variables are most accurately predicted when control is established and lack of fluidity is present. But that status is very wishful thinking. Even with masterful planning and expert effort to establish control, things happen as the expression goes: an injury, a player that showed promise in practice does not pan out in game circumstances, or simply create a long list of factors that can rip apart the fabric of good planning and execution of program elements. The best safeguards a program can have to minimize the effect of variables are supreme program management and better overall talent than the opponents.
There is for many a propensity to shrink the value of a program into a simple win or lose ratio, that is, the number of games won versus lost. This is a chancy little venture since obstacles from pinholes to blowouts are more common than not along a team’s path over time. There is also not universal agreement than wins alone are the only criteria for gauging a program’s success.
This propensity for prediction usually goes through a series of stages. The first being raw (obvious and easy to assess) expectations. Coaches and players also have this propensity. Every organization creates stated, simple team goals. When these goals are raised far above what has been the previous norm, coaches must start the process as a salesman. Then, the long, grueling work begins to transform statements into reality.
These internal team expectations, then, become those that matter the most. But there are also the public bravado/doom statements/predictions/analysis of the media, hailed as expert opinion. Usually, said media falls into two camps: the first being the trained announcer/entertainer type who possesses only some technical knowledge but plenty of gymnastic linguistics that can actually sway the common fan into believing true expertise/insider status resides within the speaker. The second camp is past players/coaches that possess technical knowledge and access to direct observation, factors that should increase the chances of accurate prediction.
Forecasting is an imperfect venture, even for the past player/coach types uber-expert granted the status to view and assess the progress of a team. There are simply too many variables, many attributed to opponents where there is minimal control. So the safe bet is to lay middle ground in any prediction, somewhat like government weather forecasters do.
Jim Harbaugh will lay out time-tested, simple statements about expectations, such as team goals, the Big Ten Championship as an ultimate goal, and provide moderate information on the state of the team. Coach Harbaugh knows he is in a situation where his conference division now has two top-five national teams, Ohio State and Michigan State. Stated objectives, goals, or a collective statement of expectations are a philosophical, formist start, but mere statements never will win football games, especially against those two stalwarts.
So far, Coach Harbaugh has not publicly reinforced the new expectations muttered by some zealous fans, namely that Michigan must almost immediately play for a national title. It took three tough years at Stanford to raise his program to the elite level. The reality is that there are steps up the ladder and Michigan cannot simply levitate past Ohio State, who now has as much talent as any team in the nation. The defensive talent for Ohio State is only increasing, leaving the rest of the nation with the prospect of beating a team that has Alabama talent with a more advanced coaching scheme.
Michigan State is a severe, secondary step up the ladder. The Spartan program showed patience in producing effective, physical line play and has secured enough difference makers at skilled positions to cause the Spartans to ascend their own ladder. Other players have simply been successfully developed over a five-year span. Like the pass at Thermopylae, the Spartans will intensely guard the ladder steps below as the team continues to try and find a way to overcome the talent and coaching of Ohio State.
It may be premature to label Harbaugh as the anti-five year plan coach. He simply has implied that if a fifth year candidate cannot clearly contribute, the extra year may not be available.
On To The Factors Of Prediction
So, predicting the 2015 results for Michigan becomes problematic. The new staff is clearly competent and has plenty of professional experience. Do not discount this, as professional coaches have more time to theorize and scheme. They are also the world’s best copycats in scheme. Coach Durkin is a prototype college coach, so his system will be based on his own experiences and preferences. However, many of the staff have clearly indicated in statements a contextualist view, that is, they have no fear of bending a program’s schemes to match the talent.
Newness is a variable that hinders prediction; competence does not hinder predicting to the positive.
Skilled players should always be highly scrutinized when attempting to appraise a team’s potential. Michigan has not one recognized skilled player that has produced big numbers on the roster. There are possibilities, but the smart choice is that Michigan will most likely not ride one horse. Clearly, Coach Drevno wants the classic 50-50 antifreeze mix between passing and running. The Michigan passing offense has been hampered by not being effective either horizontally or vertically. Some have blamed team speed, but quarterback accuracy and game management have been contributing factors. Michigan’s actual, not predicted, success will hinge on many offensive factors, quarterback play being as important as improved line play, and as a result of better line play, running back improvement.
The Michigan offense is similar to a shelf held up by several pegs. Removing even one peg (quarterback play, line play, or running back success) unhinges the entire effort. So, predicting Michigan’s success this year becomes a secondary prediction of the progress all of the pegs cited above. There is talent, but much of the base (pegs) is untested or unproven.
The defense has better athletes and far more proven experience. The warts from the last few years, pass rushing and deep coverage inabilities, must be removed. Putting Peppers at the strong position will help, but Michigan needs to find more guys in the secondary to get it done. The cornerback philosophy has changed, and if Michigan whiffs on the improvement effort, bad times may continue. The pass rush must obviously improve and this will be a coordinated effort between Coaches Durkin and Mattison.
The special teams should improve. There is a dedicated special teams coach with proven results and Michigan has enough talent to field good units. Two punters, one who can boom it in practice, and one who has boomed it in games should provide at least an average punt game. Coaches cringe and predictors should beware when a team is breaking in a new field goal kicker. But true freshmen kickers simply are a to be determined factor. For years, Michigan’s max range was less than 50 yards. Last year, this range extended slightly out. But in both college and pro ball, a team needs a guy who can hit from 55 and even beyond if needed. Andrew David can hit balls past 50 yards. The college ball is tougher to gain distance, so coaches will gauge distance in practice. And, as always, accuracy is the premiere element of a kicker. Hopefully, Michigan can put aside a long-dormant return game, through more explosive returns and some actual blocking ahead of the catch. The coverage teams remain just average at best, and there is no doubt the new staff is aware of the potential to make special teams actually to be special.
There are many factors in place this year that imply improvement. The schedule is very difficult and the task is daunting. Plenty of time will be given to the task of team improvement. Clearly, more time than patience. There will be adversity and how this team handles the tough times this year will be a sign of things to come.
Written by GBMWolverine Message Board Staff — Doc4Blu
Go Blue — Wear Maize!
Michigan, Football, and the Future -- Expectations, Delusion, Grandeur, and Reality
It had to happen, it happens everywhere when a coaching change occurs. What does the “it” in the previous sentence refer to as the topic? The “it” refers to the bloated question of how many games Michigan will win next season. Talking heads will over-analyze the stated quest and offer numerous predictions sometimes with convenient revision (and that is fine, a guess is a guess) and offer only raw generalizations to back up a conclusion that probably already has two or three attached caveats, or what ifs. You, the readers, may have better predictive accuracy than the anointed ones.
The what ifs are necessary in the art of predicting since higher-level football success is linked to multiple variables, all are important and all are interrelated. The variables are most accurately predicted when control is established and lack of fluidity is present. But that status is very wishful thinking. Even with masterful planning and expert effort to establish control, things happen as the expression goes: an injury, a player that showed promise in practice does not pan out in game circumstances, or simply create a long list of factors that can rip apart the fabric of good planning and execution of program elements. The best safeguards a program can have to minimize the effect of variables are supreme program management and better overall talent than the opponents.
There is for many a propensity to shrink the value of a program into a simple win or lose ratio, that is, the number of games won versus lost. This is a chancy little venture since obstacles from pinholes to blowouts are more common than not along a team’s path over time. There is also not universal agreement than wins alone are the only criteria for gauging a program’s success.
This propensity for prediction usually goes through a series of stages. The first being raw (obvious and easy to assess) expectations. Coaches and players also have this propensity. Every organization creates stated, simple team goals. When these goals are raised far above what has been the previous norm, coaches must start the process as a salesman. Then, the long, grueling work begins to transform statements into reality.
These internal team expectations, then, become those that matter the most. But there are also the public bravado/doom statements/predictions/analysis of the media, hailed as expert opinion. Usually, said media falls into two camps: the first being the trained announcer/entertainer type who possesses only some technical knowledge but plenty of gymnastic linguistics that can actually sway the common fan into believing true expertise/insider status resides within the speaker. The second camp is past players/coaches that possess technical knowledge and access to direct observation, factors that should increase the chances of accurate prediction.
Forecasting is an imperfect venture, even for the past player/coach types uber-expert granted the status to view and assess the progress of a team. There are simply too many variables, many attributed to opponents where there is minimal control. So the safe bet is to lay middle ground in any prediction, somewhat like government weather forecasters do.
Jim Harbaugh will lay out time-tested, simple statements about expectations, such as team goals, the Big Ten Championship as an ultimate goal, and provide moderate information on the state of the team. Coach Harbaugh knows he is in a situation where his conference division now has two top-five national teams, Ohio State and Michigan State. Stated objectives, goals, or a collective statement of expectations are a philosophical, formist start, but mere statements never will win football games, especially against those two stalwarts.
So far, Coach Harbaugh has not publicly reinforced the new expectations muttered by some zealous fans, namely that Michigan must almost immediately play for a national title. It took three tough years at Stanford to raise his program to the elite level. The reality is that there are steps up the ladder and Michigan cannot simply levitate past Ohio State, who now has as much talent as any team in the nation. The defensive talent for Ohio State is only increasing, leaving the rest of the nation with the prospect of beating a team that has Alabama talent with a more advanced coaching scheme.
Michigan State is a severe, secondary step up the ladder. The Spartan program showed patience in producing effective, physical line play and has secured enough difference makers at skilled positions to cause the Spartans to ascend their own ladder. Other players have simply been successfully developed over a five-year span. Like the pass at Thermopylae, the Spartans will intensely guard the ladder steps below as the team continues to try and find a way to overcome the talent and coaching of Ohio State.
It may be premature to label Harbaugh as the anti-five year plan coach. He simply has implied that if a fifth year candidate cannot clearly contribute, the extra year may not be available.
On To The Factors Of Prediction
So, predicting the 2015 results for Michigan becomes problematic. The new staff is clearly competent and has plenty of professional experience. Do not discount this, as professional coaches have more time to theorize and scheme. They are also the world’s best copycats in scheme. Coach Durkin is a prototype college coach, so his system will be based on his own experiences and preferences. However, many of the staff have clearly indicated in statements a contextualist view, that is, they have no fear of bending a program’s schemes to match the talent.
Newness is a variable that hinders prediction; competence does not hinder predicting to the positive.
Skilled players should always be highly scrutinized when attempting to appraise a team’s potential. Michigan has not one recognized skilled player that has produced big numbers on the roster. There are possibilities, but the smart choice is that Michigan will most likely not ride one horse. Clearly, Coach Drevno wants the classic 50-50 antifreeze mix between passing and running. The Michigan passing offense has been hampered by not being effective either horizontally or vertically. Some have blamed team speed, but quarterback accuracy and game management have been contributing factors. Michigan’s actual, not predicted, success will hinge on many offensive factors, quarterback play being as important as improved line play, and as a result of better line play, running back improvement.
The Michigan offense is similar to a shelf held up by several pegs. Removing even one peg (quarterback play, line play, or running back success) unhinges the entire effort. So, predicting Michigan’s success this year becomes a secondary prediction of the progress all of the pegs cited above. There is talent, but much of the base (pegs) is untested or unproven.
The defense has better athletes and far more proven experience. The warts from the last few years, pass rushing and deep coverage inabilities, must be removed. Putting Peppers at the strong position will help, but Michigan needs to find more guys in the secondary to get it done. The cornerback philosophy has changed, and if Michigan whiffs on the improvement effort, bad times may continue. The pass rush must obviously improve and this will be a coordinated effort between Coaches Durkin and Mattison.
The special teams should improve. There is a dedicated special teams coach with proven results and Michigan has enough talent to field good units. Two punters, one who can boom it in practice, and one who has boomed it in games should provide at least an average punt game. Coaches cringe and predictors should beware when a team is breaking in a new field goal kicker. But true freshmen kickers simply are a to be determined factor. For years, Michigan’s max range was less than 50 yards. Last year, this range extended slightly out. But in both college and pro ball, a team needs a guy who can hit from 55 and even beyond if needed. Andrew David can hit balls past 50 yards. The college ball is tougher to gain distance, so coaches will gauge distance in practice. And, as always, accuracy is the premiere element of a kicker. Hopefully, Michigan can put aside a long-dormant return game, through more explosive returns and some actual blocking ahead of the catch. The coverage teams remain just average at best, and there is no doubt the new staff is aware of the potential to make special teams actually to be special.
There are many factors in place this year that imply improvement. The schedule is very difficult and the task is daunting. Plenty of time will be given to the task of team improvement. Clearly, more time than patience. There will be adversity and how this team handles the tough times this year will be a sign of things to come.
Written by GBMWolverine Message Board Staff — Doc4Blu
Go Blue — Wear Maize!
